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Road to Rio starts here

Firstly, I know that dubbing any tournament or qualifying campaign 'Road To [insert location]' is as old as the hills, but Road to Rio has a nice ring to it and Rio de Janeiro is, after all, where the 2014 FIFA World Cup final will be held. For UEFA's 53 member nations, qualification for the finals in Brazil begins this coming weekend. Some will breeze through as always at a canter, others will flop spectacularly, some new contenders might emerge while inevitably there will be a clutch of teams without a hope in hell of getting anywhere near the finals and who will ship some soul-destroying defeats along the way.

Apart from Oceania, Europe is the only confederation whose qualifying hasn't yet begun and already there have been some high-profile casualties who won't be at Brazil 2014. China, North Korea, Saudi Arabia and Trinidad & Tobago, all of whom have appeared in recent World Cups, have been knocked out a full two years before the finals kick off. By contrast, UEFA's teams are only just embarking on what they hope will be a journey that ends in South America's largest country in two years' time.

GROUP 1
This interesting sextet brings together three former Yugoslav nations, two British teams and perhaps the continent's rising stars.
Belgium have not appeared at a major tournament since the 2002 World Cup, but all the signs are that their barren streak will soon end. They have some of Europe's hottest young prospects, several of whom are playing in the English Premier League. The standout name is Eden Hazard of Chelsea while Moussa Dembele and Kevin Mirallas make up a decent strike force. At the back, there are few central defensive partnerships better than Thomas Vermaelen and Vincent Kompany. Marc Wilmots' young charges could be set to take the footballing world by storm.
Croatia are the only team in this group to have played at Euro 2012 and while they exited at the group stage, they drew with runners-up Italy and gave eventual winners Spain an almighty fright. They have some very skilful players in Luka Modric, Mario Mandzukic and Ivan Rakitic and they will be keen to get back on the world stage after missing out on South Africa two years' ago. Neighbours Serbia also have a decent side but they blow hot and cold and their Euro 2012 qualifying campaign never recovered from forfeiting their game in Italy due to the indiscretions of their travelling support.
Wales appear to be building a competitive team and Europe already knows about the threat that Gareth Bale possesses. The death of former manager Gary Speed last November undoubtedly rocked them but Chris Coleman is astute enough to carry on the ex-Leeds, Newcastle and Bolton midfielder's good work. Celtic cousins Scotland still look back on the Euro qualifiers with a tinge of regret after a disgraceful refereeing decision cost them victory against Czech Republic, a result that would have seen them finish ahead of the Czechs and go into the play-offs. Unfortunately for Craig Levein's men, they are unlikely to threaten at the business end of this group.
Macedonia have had their moments in the past, as Ireland and England know, but their current side is workmanlike at best. Experienced striker Goran Pandev is their talisman and despite his undoubted quality, there is nobody else in the squad anywhere near his level and they will be little more than a banana skin for the bigger teams in Skopje.
Prediction: 1st Belgium, 2nd Croatia, 3rd Serbia, 4th Wales, 5th Scotland, 6th Macedonia


GROUP 2
Group 2 contains three teams who competed at Euro 2012, two of whom featured in the quarter-finals, as well as a fallen giant of European football.
Italy head the billing and they will seek to build on their excellent showing at the Euros this summer. Genius midfielder Andrea Pirlo continues to serve his country, as does veteran goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon, while Mario Balotelli showed his best side in Poland and Ukraine last June. They have good young players coming through as well and Cesare Prandelli's team should win this group with a bit to spare.
Czech Republic started Euro 2012 with a 4-1 hammering by Russia and ended it with a narrow defeat to Portugal in the quarter-finals. Michal Bilek's men had a surprisingly good showing in Poland and the feel-good factor remains. Petr Jiracek, David Limbersky and Theodor Gebre Selassie emerged as promising talents over the summer and they can expect to get into the play-offs at worst.
Denmark stunned Netherlands at the Euros before losing out to Portugal and Germany, not exactly shameful results. Morten Olsen, the longest-serving manager in international football, remains at the helm, although it is worrying that so much depends on playmaker Christian Eriksen. The 20-year-old Ajax man is a special talent but lumping the hopes of a nation on his shoulders is a risky move and they may miss out on the top two in this group.
Bulgaria were woeful in the Euro 2012 qualifiers, finishing bottom of their group behind Switzerland, Wales and Montenegro. Key players such as Dimitar Berbatov and Stilian Petrov are no longer in the setup and they are very much a team in transition. Much like when the golden generation of the mid-1990s faded away, there could be some lean years for this nation.
Ireland fans may remember that Armenia proved surprisingly competitive in Euro 2012 qualifying, coming within one game of reaching the play-offs. They thrashed Slovakia 4-0 in Bratislava a year ago and they have been building steadily in recent years. They are unlikely to come so close again to a play-off berth but they could have a nasty surprise in store for the big fry in Group 2.
Malta will always be an also-ran in European campaigns and the best they can hope for is to take points from higher-profile nations.
Prediction: 1st Italy, 2nd Czech Republic, 3rd Denmark, 4th Armenia, 5th Bulgaria, 6th Malta

GROUP 3
Ireland will play against two other teams who appeared at Euro 2012, as well as a mid-ranking European side and two minnows nearly half the world apart.
Even at this stage it's a near certainly that Germany will ease through as winners of this group. Joachim Low's side have not missed out on a major tournament since 1968, a simply incredible record, and they rarely stumble in qualifying. This exciting young team won't have too much trouble getting to Brazil 2014.
Ireland began the year full of optimism but that has completely evaporated over the last three months. The Euros were a disaster for us and we have been hit by the retirements of Shay Given and Damien Duff, as well as the withdrawal from the squad of Darron Gibson. We should still have enough to compete for a play-off place but I fear it will be beyond us.
Sweden also bowed out at the group stage in June but they signed off with a 2-0 win over France and gave creditable performances in their other games. Plus they have one of the deadliest strikers in the game in Zlatan Ibrahimovic, who has started the season well with Paris Saint Germain. They appear to have more about them than we do and could take second.
Austria were once among the kingpins of European football but that belonged to a long-gone generation. Now they are a middle of the road team who are rarely embarrassed but never among the serious contenders to get to a tournament. That status isn't set to change any time soon.
Kazakhstan will be Ireland's first opponents on Friday and this will be their fifth campaign as a member of UEFA. They are still trying to find their feet in the European game and their biggest asset will be the sheer distance that their group opponents will have to travel for games in Almaty.
Faroe Islands look set to make up the numbers in this group once more, although Brian Kerr's former charges were unlucky not to draw with Italy in the Euro 2012 qualifiers so they have a good performance in them from time to time. Also they memorably beat Austria in their first ever competitive game in 1990 but hopes of a repeat are slim.
Prediction: 1st Germany, 2nd Sweden, 3rd Rep of Ireland, 4th Austria, 5th Kazakhstan, 6th Faroe Islands


GROUP 4
Not the strongest group on first viewing but it's one that could be very competitive, particularly in terms of the play-offs.
Netherlands were the biggest disappointment at Euro 2012, losing all three of their games having come into the competition touted as potential winners. That cost coach Bert van Marwijk his job and he has been replaced by Louis van Gaal, who was in charge of the Dutch when they failed to qualify for the 2002 World Cup. They still have some world-class players in the side like Wesley Sneijder and Robin van Persie and they know they have to get the fans onside. A relatively trouble-free qualification as group winners would certainly help.
Turkey don't qualify for major tournaments very often but when they do they tend to impress, having been semi-finalists twice and quarter-finalists in their last three competition appearances. Exciting talents such as Arda Turan, Hamit Altintop and Nuri Sahin make them an interesting side to watch but, in classic Turkish style, their temperament lets them down when the pressure is on. They probably won't win the group but they won't accept anything less than second place.
Romania were one of the top teams in Europe in the 90s but success has been thin on the ground, with Euro 2008 their only competition appearance in the last 12 years. Adrian Mutu's career is on its last legs, leaving Ciprian Marica to shoulder the burden up front. They don't look much on paper but Romanian teams are often stronger than the sum of their parts and they could challenge for a play-off position.
Estonia got to within two games of a place at Euro 2012 before Ireland duly hammered them in the play-offs. After seeing our lads sink without trace at the finals, that really doesn't paint the Estonians in a very good light. At the risk of demeaning their magnificent achievement at coming so close to qualifying, they stole in at the last minute in an open but hardly world-beating group and they are still regarded as one of the continent's more beatable sides. If they finish in the top two again it would be a real shock.
Hungary are still living off past glories, even though their teams are usually competitive enough. Still they haven't even looked like getting to a major tournament in recent years and even a play-off push is highly unlikely.
The part-timers of Andorra failed to get as much as a point in their last qualifying campaign and they will probably take a few heavy beatings off the likes of Holland and Turkey.
Prediction: 1st Netherlands, 2nd Turkey, 3rd Romania, 4th Hungary, 5th Estonia, 6th Andorra

GROUP 5
The weakest top seeds and second seeds both appear in a group that could see any one of three teams with realistic ambitions of qualifying automatically.
Switzerland were only seeded third but compared to the other teams in Group 5 they have the best recent pedigree. They failed to make it to Euro 2012 but they have blooded some very good players over the past few years and the likes of Xherdan Shaqiri, Granit Xhaka, Nassim Ben Khalifa and Valentin Stocker will be well worth watching. At least they appear to be a more attack-minded team under Ottmar Hitzfeld than the effective but depressingly dull outfit that Kobi Kuhn created.
Thanks to the peculiar system FIFA operates to determine the world rankings, Norway were one of the top seeds for this qualifying campaign, even though they haven't been at a major tournament since 2000. The Scandinavians are no pushovers and Premier League fans will be familar with a few of the names (Brede Hangeland, John Arne Riise, Morten Gamst Pedersen, John Carew). They may yet justify FIFA's faith in them, although it's equally likely that they will be spending another summer watching the global spectacle on TV.
Slovenia stunned Russia in the play-offs to qualify for the 2010 World Cup and nearly beat England to a place in the last 16 - not at all bad for a country of two million inhabitants. That splendid showing granted them a place as second seeds and a favourable draw gives them every chance of being in the mix to reach their third World Cup.
For the first World Cup qualifying campaign since France 98, Cyprus aren't in Ireland's group. We were frequent visitors to the Mediterranean island in recent times and they briefly became a bogey side for us (5-2 anyone?). Their national team is still waiting to have a real crack at getting to a first ever tournament but their clubs have impressed in Europe of late, most notably APOEL Nicosia's shock run to the Champions League quarter-finals last season.
Group 5 is completed by two nations who have yet to reach a major finals and don't look like changing that record any time soon. Albania and Iceland usually limit their ambitions to being tough sides for higher-profile teams to visit.
Prediction: 1st Switzerland, 2nd Norway, 3rd Slovenia, 4th Cyprus, 5th Albania, 6th Iceland


GROUP 6
Unless there is a seismic shock in store, we can safely declare which two teams will be in line to qualify from Group 6.
A Cristiano Ronaldo-inspired Portugal got to the semi-finals at Euro 2012 and took champions Spain to a penalty shoot-out. The Real Madrid star has had personal problems of late and doesn't always handle pressure well, but when he's on song he is unplayable. Their confident displays in June will provide a solid platform going into this campaign.
Big things were expected of Russia at this year's Euros but after a scintillating start they imploded spectacularly and crashed out before the knockout stages. Dick Advocaat paid for it with his job and now Fabio Capello must pick up the pieces. He's getting well paid to do so (4 million per annum) and he breathed life into England when he took that job in 2008. If they fall short of winning the group they will definitely have the safety net of the play-offs.
Israel haven't played at a major finals since joining UEFA in the early 1990s and they only have one play-off appearance to show for all that time, but they can certainly hold their own in Europe and no team enjoys a visit to the intimidating Ramat Gan Stadium in Tel Aviv. Still, they are a middling bunch and a top two finish is beyond their reach.
Northern Ireland can be a hard side to figure out. They often perform heroics against the major players such as Spain and Italy, but perceived lesser teams like Iceland can turn up at Windsor Park and make the home side look amateur. Michael O'Neill has a real challenge on his hands to field a team that can shake off their tag of European makeweights.
Azerbaijan was in the headlines in May as the host country of Eurovision, while they submitted a highly audacious bid to host Euro 2020 that unsurprisingly came to nothing, but they won't be challenging for a major tournament debut unless they pull a real rabbit from the hat. The same can be said for Luxembourg, who consider a win of any description as a landmark result.
Prediction: 1st Portugal, 2nd Russia, 3rd Israel, 4th Northern Ireland, 5th Azerbaijan, 6th Liechtenstein

GROUP 7
No outstanding names in this group, but it does contain a recent European champion, a last 16 participant at the previous World Cup and one of the continent's fastest-improving teams.
Greece are still dining out on their shock Euro 2004 triumph but they have been consistently qualifying for major tournaments since then. They dumped Russia out of this year's Euros and made Germany work hard for a win in the quarter-finals. They will see this group as very winnable and they are probably the strongest team in it.
Bosnia-Herzegovina have been knocking on the door of a first ever qualification in recent years, only for Portugal to twice deny them in the play-offs. With a front line containing Edin Dzeko and Vedad Ibisevic, as well as the midfield creativity of Miralem Pjanic and Zvezdan Misimovic, they are well set to push for the play-offs again. It's not even out of the question that they can qualify automatically, but they might have to be content with second.
Slovakia caused a huge surprise at the 2010 World Cup when they made it out of their group ahead of then-holders Italy, but they looked average in their other games in South Africa and they finished a disappointing fourth in their qualifying group for Euro 2012. They are capable of launching a very successful campaign but I can't see it at the moment.
Latvia's appearance at Euro 2004 has since proven to be a one-hit wonder, with the Baltic nation struggling to even come close to add to that unique experience. There are no world beaters in Group 7 but still it's unlikely that the Latvians will be in contention to qualify for their first World Cup.
Near neighbours Lithuania have seen Estonia reaching the Euro 2012 play-offs and they will see that as a possible target, but they have yet to truly threaten to make the breakthrough and it doesn't seem to be on the horizon.
Liechtenstein have caused huge headaches for the likes of Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Scotland in the past but the Alpine nation doesn't even have its own domestic league. Any points gained by this tiny outfit will be celebrated with gusto.
Prediction: 1st Greece, 2nd Bosnia-Herzegovina, 3rd Slovakia, 4th Latvia, 5th Lithuania, 6th Liechtenstein


GROUP 8
Both of the Euro 2012 co-hosts appear in Group 8, as well as a team that never fails to make headlines.
England were solid but unspectacular at the Euros in June and Roy Hodgson is making into them that can be hard to beat, but lacks imagination. They will also be blunted up front by injuries to Andy Carroll and Wayne Rooney for their opening qualifiers, but there should still be enough quality in this side to ride out any storms that come their way.
Ukraine can be pleased with their efforts on home soil at Euro 2012 and they will be gunning for a rematch with England after being wrongly denied an equaliser against Hodgson's men in June. The talismanic Andriy Shevchenko has retired from football but youngsters such as Andriy Yarmolenko and Marko Devic can continue to keep the Ukrainians in contention for more big days out.
Poland had been in decline in recent years and they had their moments in the Euros but their lack of top quality was shown up. Robert Lewandowski is a deadly goal poacher while they look decent in midfield, although I still reckon the play-offs would be the extent of their abilities.
Montenegro came from practically nowhere to claim a play-off place in the Euro 2012 qualifiers and they were ranked 16th in the world at the time when these groups were drawn, which put them into the second seeding pot. They are a young, exciting team and another top two finish cannot be discounted, although they face some stiff competition for it.
Moldova have had some promising youth teams but this hasn't translated over to senior  level and they are still trying to make a splash against their continental superiors. Finally we come to San Marino, who almost always finish qualifying campaigns without a single point and are susceptible to double-digit hidings. More of the same awaits.
Prediction: 1st England, 2nd Ukraine, 3rd Montenegro, 4th Poland, 5th Moldova, 6th San Marino

GROUP 9
UEFA's only five-team group features two giants of European football who can expect to finish well clear of three other sides without a single tournament appearance to their name.
World and European champions Spain have been the team to beat in international football over the last five years and if they can go on to defend their world title in Brazil in two years' time. Their dismal performance at the Olympics will serve as a wake-up call for the players involved and while the generation of Xavi, Iniesta and Casillas is getting on in years, there are some classy young players to take over from them.
France stank the place out at the last World Cup but they enjoyed a revival over the last couple of years under Laurent Blanc. He has now made way for Didier Deschamps, who captained them to world glory in 1998, and only for the presence of Spain in their group they would most likely qualify automatically.
Belarus have one of the best under-21 teams in Europe and they memorably beat France in Paris in the Euro 2012 qualifiers. They were unfortunate to be drawn with the toughest first and second seeds possible and this campaign may be just too soon for them, but they are a team to watch in the next few years.
Finland have regressed since Roy Hodgson nearly got them into the play-offs for the European Championships a few years ago and they won't finish any higher than third. It's a similar story for Georgia.
Prediction: 1st Spain, 2nd France, 3rd Belarus, 4th Finland, 5th Georgia

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